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Would America make these deals?

american melo (AP)

Last night we detailed why we think Josh will get it going again, just somewhere else.

Fish makes the point on his home page (the Fo' Shizzle piece) that Josh's value is too low right now to consider trading him.

That was my initial reaction immediately following the playoff debacle too. But is that really the case? Just because we've seen his warts up close doesn't mean that they're as apparent to others.

I bet Jason Kidd wasn't as brilliant once he got here as the team had envisioned him to be. But they weren't with him everyday before the trade either. That's why trades happen in the first place - the grass is always greener and every coach and personnel guy believes he possess the magic fertilizer.

Josh is one year removed from an all-star appearance and coming off his best statistical year as a pro. His trade value is higher then we think right now. It was definitely higher around the all-star break last year, but we didn't want to trade him then, right?

I first started to reconsider the phrasing of my tune when Brad e-mailed about Josh for Gerald Wallace. My first thought was "no way Charlotte does that." Wallace is younger, a better defender, and his yearly hit is less than Howard's even though his contract is longer.

Then I compared the stats. Pretty much the same.

Josh generally shoots slightly better, rebounds slightly better, and turns it over less. Wallace gets more steals, blocks and assists. They both have had their share of injuries. Josh is from that area. Hmmm.

I still don't think Charlotte would do it, but it's a lot tougher decision for them than I originally thought and far from a slam dunk no.

Here's a Bucks fan (the Mavs Moneyball blogger dug up) who would like to give up on Mikey Redd so that the Bucks could throw over 25 million next year at the Bobby Simmons/Desmond Mason/JOHO wing trio. I realize he wants to unload Redd (who I doubt Cuban wants to be paying 18 million in 2011 anyway) for financial relief, but my whole point is that he places high value on JoHo's productivity as well.

The homie Saggerpance got my mind racing when he threw 'Melo's name out there in a convoluted 3-team deal that not only involved Josh, but also folks like Jermaine O'Neal and K-Mart. I didn't think the deal was realistic for Indiana, but I thought his idea of targeting 'Melo was pretty fascinating.

Here's an article detailing the financial crisis for a team that barely made the playoffs.

They say trading 'Melo would be "stunning," but peep this list:

Myriad of questionable off the floor decisions (hear the bells ringing?)...
Total disregard for defense...
Hefty and long contract...
And despite the high point totals for the team, he and Iverson basically just take turns going one-on-one...

Why would I want that for the Mavs? Because 26 a game on a shade under 50% shooting for a dude about to turn 24 at the end of this month is worth the risk.

Is Josh and the financial savings enough for the Nuggets to make the deal? Nope.

Is Josh and Brandon Bass, who still makes under a million next year, and another 3 million kicked in enough? Big money savings and you could make the argument that those guys are better fits to play with Iverson than 'Melo?

What if you threw in Devean George in the ironic S&T (one year guaranteed) and also took Stephen Hunter off their hands? Is this getting realistic yet? Are we far enough in Cuban's wallet yet?

I don't know if it's realistic from a Nuggets perspective, but doesn't their payroll make their situation just as dire as the Mavericks?

Here's a tweak of the same deal from savvy hoops e-mailer/religious figure St. Pierre:

'Melo, K-mart and Hunter for Stack, Damp, Eddie Jones and Josh.

I understand the logic for it, but I think that I ultimately would have to pass on anything that involves me taking on K-Mart's money even if it means washing my hands of Damp. Am I the only guy who thinks Damp is more useful than Martin? Maybe I'm wrong on that one.

But your only center would be Stephen Hunter. Is that a good thing? I'm so confused. But could Denver really justify bringing Damp on board? I thought I just said he was more useful than K-Mart. My brain is salary cap hemorrhaging right now.

Here's another one from the St. that Benny and I have kicked around versions of many times:

Trade Josh, Stack and Jones for Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal and Kyle Lowry.

The obvious problem for the Mavs on this one is taking on the janitor or custodian or waste management counselor or whatever it is they call Cardinal. For me it comes down to Josh for Miller straight-up. If you want to make this team work with Kidd, you do that deal because Miller can pass, shoot and dribble. All are essentials for effective motion offenses.

Would Memphis do this (which is why the St. included the Cardinal scenario)? I don't think so without the Cardinal involvement. Mainly because Miller is a better copmplement to Gay than Josh. And with the Mavericks having so many other needs I'm not quite ready to give up Stack in that deal for Cardinal when he may be used to fetch summin' better.

I also get a lot of Jermaine O'Neal trade ideas - most of them involving some sort of combo of JET, Damp, Stack and Joho. But I can't think of a single reason why Indiana would want any of those guys. No matter how bad I'd like to see it happen (though O'Neal hasn't been worth his salary in four years). What do those guys do for Indiana? Seriously?

I'm getting Clipper-related e-mails because of the ETO's for Elton Brand and Corey Maggette. We've been over the alleged Maggette scenario before.

Erik throws out JET and Josh for Elton Brand. I think the only way you can get Brand here is by trading them Dirk. Maybe I'm wrong. They are the Clippers after all.

But despite the injury, Brand can score with his back to the basket which means getting him for a wing and a combo guard seems HIGHLY unlikely. That wasn't intended to be a barely-clever weed pun either.

Erik is also interested in Josh for Jason Richardson. While I think Wallace and JoHo are too similar to justify this for Charlotte, I will concede that I could see the Bobcats being interested in saving some dough when they need to pay Okafor.

And I could also see Larry Brown valuing Josh's all-around game to Richardson's one-dimensional, scoring black hole routine. I'd love for the Mavs to get an athletic 2 who has that routine down so if Charlotte is down, I'm in. Just don't see it happening on their end.

And last of all comes the apocalyptic approach. P1 Josh is definitely going the "seeds and stems" route in order to try and get cap room after next season (when Kidd's deal expires):

First, Dallas Trades Josh Howard to Indiana for Marquis Daniels (Exp) and Travis Diener (Exp)

Second, Dallas moves Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse to Cleveland for WallyWorld and Damon Joneseseses expiring contracts

That's a tough pill to swallow. I wouldn't be for it because you have to at least be competitive next year (though Josh makes the good point that you'll actually have your pick for that draft). But Dirk might never recover from going through as season like that. Plus I think Diener has a player option.

However, what if you could move Josh and cash and perhaps a future pick for Artest's expiring contract? Wouldn't the trio of Artest, Kidd and Dirk at least keep you relevant? Then you could move Terry and Eddie Jones for Wallyworld straight up and get the same thing accomplished, right? But you'd be way better.

Whatever, I have brain freeze now. None of this crap is gonna happen. Look for them to add Matt Barnes with their exception and be worse next year. I'll be dead in three days anyway. No funeral.


Posted by Skin at 2:26 PM |
Comments (12) | Leave comment


Comments

Skin, this is good stuff. Keep it coming. I've ben keeping up with your stuff and you are dead-on. Me likey.

m

The second you mentioned Brand I completely forgot the content of the rest of your blog.

Give them any combo of anything except Dirk and i'll take it.
Those two with Harry Schwartz and Jaime Manoush would be better than what our beloved mavs threw out this year.

D-George for D-Howard anyone?

-I

The Melo deal is interesting, but isn't Iverson contemplating opting out of his contract this offseason?

I bet Nellie gets involved in some scenario because of his history with JoHo, but I don't see much the Warriors could offer.

Skin,

What was your idea about Ron Artest, Wade interupted you boys on Saturday?

How come Ben never blogs? Is he still on his way to the emergency room to get the bleach out of his eyes while avoiding a wheelchair and cussing Audi-boy w/ the escort from the female cop from the AAC?

Skin have you lost your mind? You mean to say that you wouldn't take on Melo out of fear of swapping Damp's horrible deal for K-Mart's god-awful one? Give me a foundation of Kidd, Melo and Dirk and let Cuban and Donnie work around that in free agency/trades.

I understand your logic, but ponder this. You'd be spending 67.8 million next year on 4 players, two of them play the same position. Denver has 93 million dollars committed to those two forwards over the next three years. Then throw in Dirk's 59.5 million. I know people think Cuban will spend whatever (which is not the case anymore, though he does spend way more than is fair to ask of him), but I don't see him spending 153 million dollars over the next three years on the forward position. If he did that deal, the rest of the roster would be absolute garbage. Four max players, two of them way past their prime? Just can't see it. If Cuban said, "sure - I'll have a 100 million dollar payroll and then pay 35 million in luxury tax after that." Fine - I'll do it. but those days are waaaaayyyyyyyyy over.

good stuff, i like the last deal of trying to dump contracts, bring in artest and then after next year they'd have a bunch of money. can you keep bass still? I think you try to bring in some young guys around those 3 guys and see what happens. short of a blockbuster deal i don't see how the mavs are going to be a lot better next year so i would be for the artest deal and dump contracts and then reload after next season and try to sign a big free agent and put together a team that makes more sense.

I really do like that idea, but think it's a long shot with Carlisle comin' in. Can you imagine having to coach Ron Ron on two different occasions in your career? Doesn't seem fair.

My take on the hypo-Denver deal is this: give me a lineup w/Kidd, JET, Melo, Dirk and K-Mart, and then keep Lue, Wright and Bass. Then Donnie needs to either try and use the entire MLE on Diop or split it on guys who can defend the wings and the rim like Q. Ross, Tony Allen and bigs like Skinner. You keep your payroll around $85M for next season and then have to decide on Kidd going forward. Also if that doesn't work out you've got some pieces to deal for acquiring studs on rookie contracts and picks w/Melo & Dirk as enticing bait.

All these trades didn't set my mind on fire. Face it Damp needs to go. We need a back to the basket center. BAD!!!!!

I feel you - it's a tough road to hoe. There are no good answers.



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